As Pandemic Drags On, Consumers Seeking Health Drive Record Natural & Organic Sales as Retailers Adapt to Change
This article originally appeared in Presence Marketing’s August 2020 newsletter edition and on New Hope Network’s IdeaXchange.
By Steven Hoffman
More than five months have passed since the nation and world have come under the grip of the coronavirus. Today, as Covid-19 continues to surge throughout the U.S., we wait in lines to get into stores, wear face coverings (well, at least most of us), follow floor markers to help ensure social distancing, and shop quickly to get in and out with our groceries. The days of browsing, sampling product, and being entertained by large merchandising displays and the “theater of food” have made way in large part for safety and efficiency as consumers change their shopping behavior in brick and mortar stores, and increasingly turn to options including online ordering, curbside pickup and delivery.
One thing is for sure, though. The coronavirus crisis is bringing out better eating habits, based on recent sales data, as Americans seek to improve their health and immunity, and as core natural and organic consumers double down on healthy, clean food to help ensure the health and safety of their families during these “safer at home” times.
In fact, natural and organic products are experiencing significantly higher sales in 2020, and that trend may continue. After seeing a 39% spike in sales due to stockpiling for the four weeks ending March 22, 2020, compared to the same period in 2019, natural products retail sales for the four weeks ending June 14, 2020, increased 14% over the previous year, according to market research firm SPINS, as reported in New Hope Network’s Natural Products Industry Health Monitor. And that’s after back-to-back 18% increases in the four week periods ending April 19 and May 17, respectively, reported SPINS.
Chart Source: New Hope Network, SPINS
Organic Food and Beverage Sales Surge 25%
Bloomberg reported in July that Americans “are prioritizing nutrition over cost as Covid-19 infections continue to rise across the U.S.,” pointing to Nielsen data showing that sales of organic food and beverages surged 25% for the 17-week period ending June 27, 2020. Organic meat, seafood and frozen food saw the largest increases, Bloomberg reported. “We’re expecting strength to continue in organic and natural food sales,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jennifer Bartashus in the article. Given the lockdowns to prevent the spread of the virus, “a lot of people have used the opportunity of working from home to really make a lifestyle change – lose weight and exercise,” she said.
At the same time, Bloomberg noted, while unemployment has skyrocketed and value matters more than ever, declines in discretionary spending have allowed more room for premium and specialty foods, including natural and organic products. “People are starting to look at what they’re consuming more thoughtfully now,” Ted Robb, CEO of New Barn Organics, told Bloomberg. “People are not going to fly. They’re not going to the salon. Even though we’re in a recession, and people are trying to be careful, food is one area where they can spend a little bit more,” he said.
Dietary supplements, too, are benefitting from a focus on immunity and health, leading to the highest growth rate in over 20 years for this category, reported Nutrition Business Journal. NBJ projects supplement sales in 2020 will grow 12.1% across all categories, with immunity supplements growing more than 50%, to surpass $50 billion in sales. Of note, NBJ projects that e-commerce sales of nutritional supplements will grow a whopping 61.4% in 2020, compared to 7.1% in brick and mortar stores. Longer term, online sales of supplements could increase from 10% of the market in 2019 to 20% of the overall market by 2023, NBJ predicts.
Other natural and organic categories benefitting from the coronavirus crisis, according to SPINS and New Hope Network, include shelf-stable beans, grains and rice, which took off in March with 160% growth for the four weeks ending March 22, and which still reported a robust 26% growth rate in June. Sales of plant-based meat alternatives have risen significantly, too, as coronavirus cases at meat processing plants may have led to negative perceptions of the conventional meat industry and its supply chain.
Categories in sharp decline, however, as people continue to stay closer to home include cosmetics and beauty products, weight management formulas, water bottles and filtration, body care kits, deodorants and antiperspirants, and shelf-stable jerky and meat snacks, reported SPINS and New Hope.
Fighting for Foot Traffic
In examining how the pandemic is shifting consumer behaviors, research firm Gravy Analytics compared foot traffic at four leading groceries including Wegman’s, Whole Foods Market, Safeway and Publix through June 2020. Foot traffic at these stores was typical in February and early March. This was interrupted by a spike in mid-March when consumers began pantry loading. Subsequently, foot traffic at all four supermarkets in the study declined, reaching its lowest point in mid-April before leveling off in June, according to Gravy Analytics.
While all supermarkets in the study were impacted by the pandemic, Whole Foods Market fared worse, according to the data. For the week of June 14, foot traffic to Safeway and Publix was 28% and 26% lower, respectively, compared to the week of February 2. Yet, Whole Foods Market’s foot traffic was 44% lower.
“However,” the Gravy Analytics researchers emphasized, “while foot traffic is an important indicator, it doesn’t necessarily mean that fewer consumers are shopping at Whole Foods and Wegman’s. Less foot traffic in store could be a reflection of consumers opting to use new curbside and delivery services. Regular Whole Foods customers, for example, might be purchasing their groceries through Amazon instead. Consumers might simply be less familiar with Publix, Safeway, and Wegman’s curbside pickup and delivery services, making them more inclined to go into the store. While convenience isn’t a new consumer behavior trend, it is becoming more prominent as stores find new ways to give consumers a safer shopping experience, and consumers become more familiar with these services,” they said.
In a panel hosted by Winsight Grocery Business in early July, former Whole Foods Co-CEO Walter Robb expressed concern over the reduction in store traffic, and an associated “de-emphasis” on in-store merchandising during the pandemic. “One thing we’re seeing across all retailers is less trips,” Robb told the panel. “And in retail, the trip is precious, just precious. And they have stepped back significantly. The basket is gone up to counter that, so it was supposed to come out even. But the nature of it is that with the way the store is set up now, it becomes more transactional. There’s much less of a value in merchandising, etc., because folks want to get in and get out. And so, you know, whether it’s the reduction of SKUs or whether it’s the fact that you’re flattening or spreading out your displays or whatever, I think, the advantage of physical stores that from a merchandise perspective, particularly a retailer like Whole Foods, is minimized as a result of this.”
Planning When Everything Is Changing
“How do we shape our promotional strategy in a time when everything is changing?” asked Jonathan Lawrence, Senior Director of Grocery & Natural Living for Fresh Thyme Farmers Market. Based in Downers Grove, IL, Fresh Thyme’s hybrid mix of 70% natural/organic to 30% conventional product offerings in its 74 stores located throughout the Midwest help shoppers get everything they need in a value-based, one-stop shopping format, Lawrence said. “How do we provide amazing customer service and promotion and at the same time respect social distancing? How do we reach customers and support them in a safe manner? That’s the challenge, but is absolutely what is needed,” Lawrence mused.
Lawrence confirmed that, like other retailers, the customer count at Fresh Thyme is down, but the average basket purchase is up. “We are ramping up with the idea that this may come back hard in the fall,” he said. “We are starting to plan for the immune season and how we are going to tackle it differently; our responsibility is to be there for our customers. There are categories leading the way that haven’t before, such as zinc, immune support products, hand sanitizer, etc. Now, they are spiking and we are sometimes having to think outside the box with our vendors to get product on the shelf. We might opt for a different size or a different product to have something on the shelf,” he said.
Fresh Thyme plans to open a new store in downtown St. Louis in 2021, and hopes to incorporate what it is learning now into the new concept. “You are going to see the new evolution of Fresh Thyme with the new store and also with planned remodels. We’re going to craft the product mix around the customer and the local community,” Lawrence said.
“How do we change the fluidity of our supply chain and food system? We need a shorter runway in our supply system, and that’s the challenge,” said Corinne Shindelar, founder and former president of the Independent Natural Foods Retail Association (INFRA). “As an industry, we have always been about system changes and trying to make things better. We now have the opportunity to change the system pretty rapidly because we have the ears of society like never before. We could be influencing a more dynamic and robust outcome, but only if we do the work. We don’t know how long this pandemic will last. As such, I would put many contingency plans into the budget,” she advised.
To save money on delivery services – Instacart charges up to 8%, said Shindelar - she recommends that independent retailers could do something as simple as add a line to a cell phone as an ordering hotline. “We overcomplicate things,” she said. Shindelar also advised retailers to consider what to reopen. “If you were losing money at food service, with high labor costs and low margins, now is the time to consider working with local restaurants and food service operators that retailers can feature as grab-and-go meal solutions,” she advised.
Walter Robb, who served as co-CEO of Whole Foods Market when it became one of Instacart’s high profile partners, advised retailers on the Winsight Grocery Business panel to be sure to capture customer data when working with a third party delivery service. “If you don’t capture the data on your customers and know who they are, what they’re buying and be able to look at their basket adjacencies and the analytics, then you’re breathing in the dark in terms of growing business,” he cautioned.
At Cambridge Natural Foods, located in the heart of Boston, the family-owned business felt the shock of universities and colleges nearby closing, and people leaving the city for second homes when they could to escape the pandemic, said cofounder Michael Kanter. Out of an overabundance of caution, the store initially closed for a week in mid-March and then opened for curbside and delivery only. It fully reopened its doors on July 7, to the community’s – and family’s – relief. “In hindsight, it was painful to close, but we also saw that our staff and customers were vulnerable,” said Kanter. “Now, we are limiting the number of customers in the store, we’ve installed plexiglass protection, we’re doing a lot of curbside pickup and delivery, and we’ve limited hours to help keep our staff safe and sane. We’re back to about three-fifths of our normal volume,” he said.
There may be a silver lining in what we learn from the pandemic, Kanter offered. “We weren’t so conscious of public health and hygiene in public places before. We kind of know we are a part of each other but until you experience something like this, you don’t think about it. Now we are much more aware of how what we do affects others. Maybe that will propel us forward into realizing that caring and sharing are paramount in society.”
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