Presence MarketWatch 2025
This article first appeared in the January 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.
By Steven Hoffman
With the Trump administration returning to the White House and the GOP controlling both the Senate and House of Representatives by narrow margins, the year 2025 is sure to bring significant change to regulatory policy, business and the economy, not just for the U.S. but also the world. To help leaders in the natural channel navigate the opportunities and challenges ahead, Presence Marketing will track and report on these issues over the course of the year ahead. Read on for a snapshot of some of the major issues that will impact the natural, organic and nutritional products market over the coming year.
Tariffs and Food Prices
President-elect Donald Trump ran on a campaign to lower grocery prices, which rose 23% since the onset of the Covid pandemic in Spring 2020. Food inflation has slowed over the past year, according to NBC News, and is now less than 2% as energy prices and supply chains have stabilized. Yet, experts caution that a combination of tariffs and mass deportations could have a further destabilizing effect on agriculture, food production and grocery prices. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs up to 60% on goods from China, and a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada – all countries that are significant exporters of food and other products to the U.S. market.
In a Time Magazine interview in December 2024, Trump acknowledged it may be difficult to bring down grocery prices, saying, “Look, they got them up. I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up.” According to a study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada would have the biggest impact on prices for autos, vegetables, fuel, prepared food and animal products, reported CNN Business. The U.S. relies on Mexico for 89% of its imported avocados and 91% of foreign-grown tomatoes. “Higher tariffs on Mexico and Canada will … put upward pressure on U.S. food prices,” the Peterson Institute said. While it’s too soon to determine whether Trump will actually impose tariffs or if trade agreements can be reached to prevent them, “The only certainty is that new tariffs will be costly for the United States,” said the Peterson Institute study’s authors.
Food, Farm Workers and Mass Deportation
California’s Monterey County is the fourth-largest crop-producing county in the nation, with the agriculture industry there contributing $4.4 billion to the economy, and with an estimated 55,000 farm workers, including many who are undocumented. As such, the area’s growers have expressed concern that much of their workforce could disappear as a result of potential mass deportations once the Trump administration takes office. In an interview on Dec. 19, 2024, with NBC Bay Area News, Monterey County Farm Bureau CEO Norm Groot said, “It will absolutely impact food prices at the consumer level. If it impacts local and nationwide supplies, that will have a price increase.” NBC reported the farm bureau is teaming up with county officials and other stakeholders to create a task force in addressing local concerns around mass deportations, including concerns around family and child separation. "It's interesting that four years ago during the pandemic, they were essential," Groot said. "And now all of a sudden we’re looking at it from a different perspective and trying to understand how that dynamic has changed."
And it’s not just Monterey County – while it’s estimated that undocumented workers make up only 5% of the total U.S. workforce, the share of undocumented workers across the nation’s food supply chain is at least 16%, reported Successful Farming. In some industries this number is higher – the Idaho Dairymen’s Association estimated that nearly 90% of the state’s dairy workers were born outside of the U.S. According to a September 2024 study by the Peterson Institute, mass deportation could lead to a 10% increase in food prices. Between higher food prices that could come with proposed tariffs – and potential government bailouts funded by U.S. taxpayers to provide assistance to farmers affected by deportations – Americans could potentially get “double-whammied” by the higher costs and supply chain disruptions these proposed policies could bring.
RFK, FDA and the Nation’s Health
MAHA has become a rallying cry for many in the natural health and nutritional supplements industry as Congress weighs the nomination of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Kennedy, a lawyer, environmentalist and controversial health advocate, is Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), a Cabinet-level position that oversees the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Institutes of Health (NIH), and others.
On one hand, RFK’s team is weighing a rewrite to the FDA’s rules overseeing food additives and taking a hard look at the harmful chemicals and pesticides used in food production. On the other hand, RFK’s top lawyer Aaron Siri stirred controversy when it was reported in December 2024 by CNN and others that he had petitioned the FDA to revoke approval of the polio vaccine. The World Health Organization declared that polio was eradicated in 2019 but warned it could re-emerge if vaccination coverage declines. According to a Dec. 4, 2024, article in Forbes, Kennedy criticized the FDA in a post on X (formerly Twitter) for “suppressing” a wide range of items, including “psychedelics, peptides, stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, chelating compounds, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, vitamins, clean foods, sunshine, exercise, nutraceuticals, and anything else that advances human health and can’t be patented by Pharma.”
Kennedy will have an ally in Martin Makary, M.D., a surgeon, public policy researcher at Johns Hopkins University and a member of the National Academy of Medicine, and President-elect Trump’s choice to serve as FDA Commissioner. In September 2024, Makary joined RFK at a round table in Congress on health and nutrition, where he criticized how food in the U.S. is grown and processed. "We have poisoned our food supply, engineered highly addictive chemicals that we put into our food. We spray it with pesticides that kill pests. What do you think they do to our gut lining in our microbiome?" Makary said. In related news, Trump’s pick for Surgeon General, Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, a family medicine doctor who runs a chain of urgent care clinics in New York, was a regular Fox News contributor and is an advocate for nutritional supplements, marketing her own brand of dietary supplements called BC Boost, containing vitamins C, B-12, D and Zinc.
Brooke Rollins Nominated to Lead USDA
President-elect Trump in November nominated Brooke Rollins, President and CEO of the America First Policy Institute, a conservative think tank based in Texas, to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture. “As our next Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke will spearhead the effort to protect American farmers, who are truly the backbone of our country,” Trump said in a statement. Rollins is a graduate of Texas A&M University, with an undergraduate degree in agriculture development. “From her upbringing in the small and agriculture-centered town of Glen Rose, Texas, to her years of leadership involvement with Future Farmers of America and 4H, to her generational family farming background, to guiding her four kids in their show cattle careers, Brooke has a practitioner’s experience, along with deep policy credentials in both nonprofit and government leadership at the state and national levels,” the statement said.
“We congratulate Brooke Rollins on her nomination as Secretary of Agriculture. This is an important moment for U.S. agriculture, and we are optimistic about the opportunities her leadership will bring to rural America,” Amy France, chairwoman of the National Sorghum Producers in Scott City, KS, told Successful Farming. "Sorghum farmers are at the forefront of innovation, contributing to domestic biofuels and heart-healthy, nutritious, ancient grain foods. We are eager to work with her to advance policies that strengthen the sorghum industry and benefit growers nationwide.”
“The Department of Agriculture plays a pivotal role in safeguarding our food supply, addressing food insecurity, managing our forests, as well as supporting America’s farmers and rural communities who are on the frontlines of the climate crisis,” said Rebecca Riley, Managing Director, Food and Agriculture, for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). “Rollins needs to invest in America’s farmers – from small family farms to larger-scale operations – and to work toward a resilient and equitable food system that puts healthy food on the table, restores our soil, protects the climate, and safeguards the health of our communities … now is not the time to undermine climate-smart farming practices, favor industrial agriculture at the expense of small producers and consumers, or gut the nutrition programs that many Americans rely on,” Riley said.
California’s AB 660 Sets Landmark Food Date Labeling Standards
California Governor Gavin Newsom in September 2024 signed into law the nation's first mandatory food date labeling reform bill. California Assembly Bill 660 (AB 660) standardizes the use of “Best If Used By” and “Use By” dates on food labels, and prohibits the use of “Sell By” dates. The new law requires manufacturers to use the same phrase for date labels across their products, reported Food Safety. Beginning July 1, 2026, companies selling food products in California must only use “Best If Used By” to indicate the date by which a product will reach its peak quality, and “Use By” to indicate the date by which a product’s safety can no longer be guaranteed. The use of consumer-facing “Sell By” dates will be prohibited to reduce the chances of consumers confusing “Sell By” dates with quality or safety dates.
“On grocery store shelves today, there are more than 50 differently phrased date labels on packaged food. Some phrases are used to communicate peak freshness of a product or when a product is no longer safe to eat. Others, like ‘Sell By,’ are used only to inform stock rotation in stores but mislead some consumers into thinking the product is no longer safe to eat. AB 660 will close this gap by requiring manufacturers to use the same phrase for date labels across their products,” NRDC said in a statement.
Of course, as goes California, so goes the country. “AB 660 is game changing, not just for California, but for the country. It will be the first law of its kind to end the ridiculous confusion that causes consumers to throw out almost $15 billion of perfectly good food nationwide. It will also help reduce the significant toll that wasting food has on our planet,” Dana Gunders, President of reFED, told BioCycle Magazine. “Having to wonder whether our food is still good is an issue that we all have struggled with. Today’s signing of AB 660 is a monumental step to keep money in the pockets of consumers while helping the environment and the planet,” said Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin, author of the bill.
Harvard Researchers: ‘Planet-Friendly’ Diet Promotes Human Longevity, Cuts GHG Emissions
By Steven Hoffman
Was Frances Moore Lappé ahead of her time when she wrote the bestseller Diet for a Small Planet? The book, which has sold more than three million copies since it was first published in 1971, argued that industrial food production has a negative impact on the environment. Presenting a basic guide for a healthy diet along with recipes, Lappé’s groundbreaking book advocated for “environmental vegetarianism.”
Now, in time for the Northern Hemisphere’s extreme summer heat, researchers at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health suggest that a “Planetary Health Diet” (PHD) that emphasizes fruits, vegetables and whole grains, while allowing for modest consumption of meat and dairy products, reduces the risk of premature death in humans by nearly one third – while also reducing the release of greenhouse gases that are linked to global warming and climate change.
The study, published on June 10, 2024, in The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, found that the risk of premature death was 30% lower in the top 10% of participants most closely adhering to the Planetary Health Diet compared to those in the lowest 10%. Every major cause of death, including cancer, heart disease and lung disease, was lower with greater adherence to this dietary pattern, said the study’s authors.
“For every major cause of death we looked at, there was a lower risk in people with better adherence to the Planetary Health Diet,” Walter Willett, M.D., professor of epidemiology and nutrition and co-author of the study, said in a statement.
In addition, the researchers found that those with the highest adherence to the PHD had a substantially lower environmental impact than those with the lowest adherence, including 29% lower greenhouse gas emissions, 21% lower fertilizer needs and 51% lower cropland use.
“Climate change has our planet on track for ecological disaster, and our food system plays a major role. Shifting how we eat can help slow the process of climate change. And what’s healthiest for the planet is also healthiest for humans,” Dr. Willet said.
The Harvard researchers noted that their work is the first large-scale study to directly evaluate the impacts of adherence to recommendations in the landmark EAT-Lancet report. Published in 2019, the report was the first full scientific review that brought together 37 world-leading scientists to ask the question, “Can we feed a future population of 10 billion people a healthy diet within planetary boundaries?”
While other studies have found that diets emphasizing plant-based foods over animal-sourced foods could have benefits for human and planetary health, most have used one-time dietary assessments, which produce weaker results than looking at diets over a long period of time, the authors noted.
As such, the researchers used health data from more than 200,000 women and men enrolled in Harvard’s Nurses’ Health Study I and II and the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. Participants were free of major chronic diseases at the start of the study and completed dietary questionnaires every four years for up to 34 years. Participants’ diets were scored based on intake of 15 food groups — including whole grains, vegetables, poultry and nuts — to quantify adherence to the PHD.
“Eating more whole plant foods, less animal foods and less highly processed foods is better for people and planet alike,” David Katz, M.D., told CNN in a recent interview about the study. “In this paper, we see that same message amplified: Adhering to a dietary pattern conducive to the health of the planet and sustainability is associated with meaningful reductions in all-cause mortality.” Katz is the founder of the nonprofit True Health Initiative, a global coalition of experts dedicated to evidence-based lifestyle medicine.
“Our study is noteworthy given that the U.S. Department of Agriculture has refused to consider the environmental impacts of dietary choices, and any reference to the environmental effects of diet will not be allowed in the upcoming revision of the U.S. Dietary Guidelines,” said Dr. Willett. “The findings show just how linked human and planetary health are. Eating healthfully boosts environmental sustainability — which in turn is essential for the health and well-being of every person on Earth.”
In 2021, for the 50th anniversary of the publication of Diet for a Small Planet, Frances Moore Lappé wrote: “In 1970, I never imagined the impact of our diet on the looming life-and-death climate crisis. Nor that 40 years later my own daughter, Anna, would tackle this threat in Diet for a Hot Planet, enabling me to learn so much about the climate-food connection. If we achieve a societal shift toward plant-based diets, we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farming by as much as 70% by 2050.”
Lappé added: “Worldwide, if those eating meat-centered diets simply moved to popular low-meat or no-meat fare – such as traditional Mediterranean or vegetarian cuisine – emissions could be reduced by an amount equal to the current greenhouse gas emissions of all cars, trucks, planes, trains and ships. … More heartening news is that changes to farming and eating that benefit our Earth also enhance our health.”
Learn more:
Evaluating Population Diets and Planetary Health—Shining New Light
American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, June 10, 2024
Diet for a Hot Planet, by Anna Lappé, originally published in 2010
Diet for a Small Planet, by Francis Moore Lappé, originally published in 1971
Cracking Down on Fraud: USDA Organic Enforcement Rules Take Full Effect in March 2024
This article first appeared in Presence Marketing’s September 2023 newsletter.
By Steven Hoffman
Organic food is big business in the U.S. – sales of organic products topped $61 billion in 2022 – and the certified organic label fetches a premium price for producers. So much so that fraud from both domestic and imported sources had become a major concern among organic industry business owners, investors and advocates.
That’s why such leading organizations as the Organic Trade Association (OTA) and others applauded the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) when, earlier this year, the agency announced the Strengthening Organic Enforcement (SOE) final rule, which is set to be fully implemented and enforced in March 2024.
Representing the biggest change to organic regulations since the passage of the Organic Food Production Act in 1990, the SOE Rule was created to crack down on organic fraud. The new rule provides “a significant increase in oversight and enforcement authority to reinforce the trust of consumers, farmers, and those transitioning to organic production. This success is another demonstration that USDA fully stands behind the organic brand,” Jenny Lester Moffitt, USDA Under Secretary for Marketing and Regulatory Programs, said in a statement.
“The rule closes gaps in current organic regulations and builds consistent certification practices to prevent fraud and improve the transparency and traceability of organic products. Fraud in the organic system – wherever it occurs – harms the entire organic sector and shakes the trust of consumers in organic. This regulation will have significant and far-reaching impacts on the organic sector and will do much to deter and detect organic fraud and protect organic integrity throughout the supply chain,” OTA said in support of the new rule.
Liz Figueredo, quality and regulatory director at organic certifier Quality Assurance International (QAI), based in San Diego, California, told Nutritional Outlook in July 2023 that the new SOE Rule closes supply chain loopholes that existed in previous regulations. The new rule requires organic certification for all parts of the supply chain, including handlers and suppliers who were previously exempt, she said.
“This means that certifiers can no longer depend on documentation from uncertified handlers, which was often lacking, to verify the organic status of products. The rule also includes fraud-reduction techniques, such as requiring an Import Certificate for any organic ingredients or products imported into the U.S., which provides the total volume or weight of the imported products,” Figueredo said.
Who Is Affected by the New SOE Rule?
According to USDA, the SOE Rule may affect USDA-accredited certifying agencies; organic inspectors; certified organic operations; handlers of organic products; operations considering organic certification; businesses that import or trade organic products; retailers that sell organic products; and organic supply chain participants who are not currently certified organic.
Exemptions are limited to a few low-risk activities such as very small operations; certain retail establishments that do not process; storage and warehouse facilities that only handle products in sealed, tamper-proof containers or packages; distributors that only handle final retail-packaged products; and customs and logistics brokers that do not take ownership or physical possession of organic products.
However, exempt operations must still follow all other applicable portions of organic regulations, including co-mingling and contamination prevention, labeling requirements and record keeping. Transporters that only move organic products between certified operations, or transload between modes of transportation, do not need to be individually certified, but are the responsibility of the certified operation that loads or receives the product.
To see if your business is affected and for more information, visit the full text of USDA’s SOE Rule in the Federal Register. OTA, too, has a resource page with extensive information regarding preparing for full compliance with the SOE Rule, along with exclusive training materials for association members. OTA also offers a questionnaire for businesses that may not be sure if they need certification.
What Does the SOE Rule Do?
According to USDA, “SOE protects organic integrity and bolsters farmer and consumer confidence in the USDA organic seal by supporting strong organic control systems, improving farm to market traceability, increasing import oversight authority, and providing robust enforcement of the organic regulations.”
Key updates include:
Requiring certification of more of the businesses, like brokers and traders, at critical links in organic supply chains.
Requiring NOP Import Certificates for all organic imports.
Requiring organic identification on non-retail containers.
Increasing authority for more rigorous on-site inspections of certified operations.
Requiring uniform qualification and training standards for organic inspectors and certifying agent personnel.
Requires standardized certificates of organic operation.
Requires additional and more frequent reporting of data on certified operations.
Creates authority for more robust recordkeeping, traceability practices, and fraud prevention procedures.
Specify certification requirements for producer groups.
“SOE complements and supports the many actions that USDA takes to protect the organic label, including the registration of the USDA organic seal trademark with the USPTO. The registered trademark provides authority to deter uncertified entities from falsely using the seal, which together with this new rule provides additional layers of protection to the USDA organic seal,” USDA said.
For producers wanting to learn more about navigating and adhering to these new requirements, the Western Growers Association in partnership with the Organic Produce Network will host a session at its upcoming Organic Grower Summit, Nov. 29-30, 2023, in Monterey, California, entitled “The SOE Deadline Looms–Are You Ready?” The seminar is designed to help growers better understand the upcoming rule changes, which will affect producers, distributors, handlers and importers.
In addition, organic industry and policy veterans Gwendolyn Wyard and Kim Dietz recently founded Strengthening Organic Systems, an advisory firm focused on helping businesses with organic fraud prevention, supply chain investigations and compliance with USDA’s organic anti-fraud regulations.
Read More
How Will USDA’s Organic Regulation Changes Affect the Food and Nutraceutical Industries? – Nutritional Outlook
USDA Launches Organic Integrity Database Module – Organic Insider
Tighter Rules Now in Effect for USDA Organic Seal of Approval – Cosmetics and Toiletries News
Strengthening Organic Enforcement USDA Rule – California Certified Organic Farmers
USDA Bolsters Consumer Confidence in Certified Organic Products with New Enforcement Rule – New Hope Network
Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media, and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Compass Natural serves in PR and programming for NoCo Hemp Expo and Southern Hemp Expo, and Hoffman serves as Editor of the weekly Let’s Talk Hemp Newsletter, published by We are for Better Alternatives. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com.