At Expo West, Michelle Obama, Maria Shriver Attest to Natural Industry’s Strength
This article first appeared in the April 2025 issue of Presence Marketing’s newsletter.
By Steven Hoffman
With guest appearances from Michelle Obama, who shared a video greeting to attendees of Natural Products Expo West, and Maria Shriver, who spoke in person, this year’s State of Natural & Organic Keynote Presentation was star studded, as well as jam-packed with market data confirming that growth in the natural and organic CPG industry is strengthening in the post-pandemic era. In fact, according to research presented by SPINS, New Hope Network and Whipstitch Capital, the natural and organic CPG channel continues to outperform its conventional counterparts. And with that, investment is steadily returning while companies in the space continue to lead in product innovation.
Driving it all is the consumer, with younger and older generations alike demanding healthy, clean-label products, perhaps becoming increasingly aware that you either “pay the farmer or you pay the doctor,” and supporting brands that are conscious about how our food, supplements and personal care products are produced and packaged…and how that impacts climate change and the environment.
“Hey, Expo West, I hope you're having a great time out there in Anaheim,” said Michelle Obama in her greeting. “I’m so excited about the work you're doing to make our food and beverage industry healthier for all of us. And the truth is, we need you all across our country. Young people aren't getting the nutrients they need to thrive. They're not eating enough fruits and vegetables, they're not drinking enough water and they're consuming far too much added sugar, and it's not their fault. Too many families are looking everywhere for more affordable, healthier options,” said Obama, who, together with Stefan and Aisha Curry and Kristen Bell, launched PLEZi Nutrition to offer healthier food and beverage options for kids.
Maria Shriver, who has been a longtime advocate for women’s health and Alzheimer’s research, along with her son Patrick Schwarzenegger, who currently stars in the Max series White Lotus, recently launched MOSH functional nutrition bars with a mission to promote brain health and wellness through nutrition, education, research and advocacy.
Speaking at the show about her first time attending Expo West, Shriver said, “I'm really thrilled to be among so many what I call architects of change, people who kind of see openings, don't wait for somebody else to do it, and go out there and develop a product and go for it. I think what's so exciting about everybody in this room is people are trying to create products that are not only good for individuals, but good for the world at large. And that's why I'm excited to be in this community. I've been in politics, I've been in journalism, I've been in nonprofit work. I'm actually leaving today to go to Special Olympics, which has the world games in Italy. And so many people with intellectual disabilities have health challenges. And I often try to think about how we can incorporate all of these different communities into the wellness movement, but you are people that see challenges and are not sitting by and waiting for someone else to fix them,” she said.
Shriver continued, “We need healthier food. We need people who are focused on health and wellness to change the trajectory of chronic disease in this country. We often talk about women living longer than men, but they live in really bad health longer. We can change what our children eat, how they grow up, how they learn. What we give them as children impacts the way they learn, it impacts their brain health, it impacts things such as ADHD and other issues.”
‘Wow, This Industry Is a Force’
The natural and organic products industry has more than tripled in size since 2007, growing from $97 billion in sales in 2007 to over $325 billion in 2024.
“Wow, this industry is a force,” said Jessica Rubino, VP of Content & Summits for New Hope Network. “That is a tremendous amount of growth. Today, we’re defining the industry as the natural, organic and functional food and beverage space, dietary supplements and personal care.”
According to Rubino, the industry grew 5.7% in 2024, exceeding expectations. “The biggest piece of the pie is food and beverage, followed by dietary supplements and then personal care.” Rubino also said that while personal care is the smallest segment, it is the fastest growing and a category to watch.
Among food and beverage products, meat, fish, poultry and dairy drove growth in 2024, from 5.8% growth in 2023 to a 13.1% increase in 2024. Sales of dairy products rose from 5.6% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2024. “I'm seeing a ton of innovation in dairy, global flavors, high probiotic counts, definitely more products geared towards children,” Rubino observed.
“In the supplement category, which reached $69 billion in sales and had healthy growth of 5.2% in 2024, we saw sports nutrition continuing to drive that growth along with specialty ingredients. For 2025, we’re expecting to see herbs and botanicals enter into the top three, particularly for consumers looking for support for things like sleep, anxiety, energy — kind of the need states of today,” Rubino shared.
“Finally, personal care. I love this category. Like I said, really strong growth there — 6.7%, driven by deodorant, oral hygiene and feminine care. Feminine care is an interesting one because it really ties to this movement around women's health products and conversations around women's health,” Rubino stated.
In addition, “Organic is still very solid and strong, moving about the same pace as natural,” said Kathryn Peters, Head of Industry Relations for SPINS and one of this year’s keynote presenters. “Consumers obviously have a strong awareness more than a lot of other certifications and a confidence in organic.” Certified regenerative products, too, showed significant growth of 20% in 2024, the panel noted.
“Natural products are absolutely continuing to accelerate again. Of course, they’re all outpacing non-natural products, and that’s even with not a whole lot of new items coming through,” said Peters. “We’re also seeing more buyers coming in. This is being driven across many areas of the store, whether it’s refrigerated, grocery or vitamins and supplements. So, it’s just a resilient, wonderful story of growth we see in the industry. And really importantly, the game is continuing to be all about smart, profitable growth. It's all about thinking very intelligently about how you use your funds as a brand to make sure you're meeting the consumer’s needs and that you're positioning yourself effectively in the market.”
Regarding consumer perceptions under a new White House administration, Rubino shared that, based on a survey of 4,000 consumers in January, followed by a second survey in February, “Overall we did see more positive sentiment than negative, but just in that time alone we saw some of those positive people moving into unsure or uncertain or neutral. What that shows is that during uncertain times around policy or administration, consumers often turn to their own choices and to industries that they trust. So, this is going to make it even more important for the natural and organic products industry to lean into its values and the why and the benefits behind it.”
Rubino also shared that one of the key things that's top of mind about the economy among industry leaders is tariffs. “Everyone is talking about tariffs and it's particularly impacting those in the dietary supplement industry and those with international supply chains. We also see some companies leaning into domestic production or on-shoring some of their business practices. From a health policy standpoint, there's greater awareness and more dialogue around chronic disease prevention and holistic health solutions. This can certainly be a good thing, but there's also awareness that with more companies entering the space and more consumers buying these products, we need to make sure that we're also safeguarding the integrity of the industry. There's opportunity, but we want to make sure that we safeguard it against opportunism in this space.”
The Investment Landscape Is Improving
From an investor’s perspective, the industry is looking better than it has in some time, asserts Nick McCoy, Managing Director and Cofounder of Whipstitch Capital. “Over the last couple of years there’s been a lot of talk and a lot of pain for the lack of liquidity in this industry. It’s been very difficult for founders to find money compared to pre-Covid. Right now, we’re sitting in a very similar point as we were in 2010 or 2011 facing the millennial launch and emerging from the great recession…when it was very difficult to raise small checks. So, what's the hand of cards that we're playing in this industry now? Well, we have natural products that are very attractive. They're outperforming…consumers are running to them. We have positive ROI in cash invested. Cash invested is resulting in big revenue gains right now, and ultimately dollars chase dollars,” McCoy said.
“We may not have had as much M&A or fundings over the last two years, but…we've built a tremendous amount of value in this industry. And when you see more consumers spending more money in wellness, investment in M&A and other dollars eventually catch up and that's what's going to happen. CPG investors right now are sitting on a very large pool of illiquid but very attractive assets. There's a lot of viable brands that are growing faster than basically the broader market... Interest rates are starting to stabilize. We're seeing more fund closings and more investors getting more liquid money and the amount of illiquid value locked up is going up.”
According to McCoy, it’s not just the “big strategics" buying natural food brands. The natural products industry itself is seeing companies growing large enough to potentially become buyers themselves. “We’re seeing lots of talk about the IPO market starting again. Before 2021, I could probably count on one hand the number of brands that IPO’d in this industry. Now it sounds like it’s going to come back,” McCoy shared.
“There’re a lot of different ways that people get to liquidity,” McCoy added. “And once it does get liquid, then basically the money will flow from the bigger funds to the smaller funds, and the longer it takes, the more money these individual investors are going to get — surprising amounts. They thought they were going to get five times their money or 10 times their money investing in the company in 2015, and now it's grown so large they get 50X when it sells. And that's a true case of some that recently sold.”
According to McCoy, the $100-$300 million in revenue independent natural CPG brands — a group showing “tremendous growth” — represent major M&A and consolidation opportunity. “If we look at some of these recent high-profile deals, two, two and a half, three times revenue are where some of these things are trading. So, if we apply a two and a half times revenue multiple using SPINS sell-through data, you can see that this kind of locked up illiquid value that was $13 billion two years ago is up to $19 billion now. And when you think about a number like that, when that money starts to go back to investors, if you're an investor and you put $25,000 into a company expecting to get $250,000 and suddenly you get $1.5 million, you're going to be investing a lot more than $25,000 into other companies and that's going to bring the liquidity back over these next few years. It's really exciting to me.”
Watch the State of Natural & Organic Keynote here.
Steven Hoffman is Managing Director of Compass Natural, providing public relations, brand marketing, social media and strategic business development services to natural, organic, sustainable and hemp/CBD products businesses. Contact steve@compassnaturalmarketing.com.